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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or simply the greatest shock.

However this year's competition is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions declining and recent also-rans improving collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a wild and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still