🔗 Share this article

Things were simpler then. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.